Up The Guts Rugby

The trans Tasman clash to decide which Southern Hemisphere team will face off the best Northern Hemisphere team will be a huge occasion. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Wales vs France match is big but the All Blacks vs Wallabies match feels like the real final.  Whoever wins this match up is going to be a hell of a lot more confident about stitching up the tournament.

The year before David Kirk lifted the William Web Ellis Cup in 1987 was the last time the Wallabies beat the All Blacks at Eden Park and I reckon Captain Kirk and his mates from ’87 will be quietly confident that our current All Black lads can keep that record.

The Wallabies have been harping on all week that it’s our tournament to lose and that we’re under the most pressure.  In a way they are right, we live and breathe Rugby here and to be fair, most Australians don’t give a toss.  But that doesn’t mean they want it any less.

Let's NOT give these guys the satisfaction shall we?

I’m sure the likes of Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Digby Ioane would love nothing more than to complete 2011 with a Super 15 crown, a Tri Nations crown (and most notably, the LAST ever Tri Nations crown!) and the World Cup mantle and right to be referred to as ‘The Best Team in the World’.

Anyone else glad that we don’t have to listen to the Springboks being referred to as ‘World Champions’ for at least the next four years?  Please comment if you do!

Man for Man Stack Up

Man for man and pound for pound, the All Blacks stack up against the Wallabies in the Rugby World Cup Semi Final II Show Down!

The first obvious thing that stands out is the hamstring injury to Kurtley Beale.  Beale is central to the Wallabies success, he IS their counter-attack.  O’Connor and Ioane  are very talented men but they rely on Beale’s brilliance to spark it and O’Connor has never played that flash against the All Blacks in the past.

If he has limited (or no) involvement in the game, the All Blacks will have license to air raid the Wallabies for field position all day and put a lot of pressure on the Wallabies.

Robbie Deans is leaving it right up until kick off to announce if Beale can play.  Either way it’s great for the All Blacks.  It means that poor Adam Ashley-Cooper has had to train this week not knowing if he will be centre or fullback, two VERY different positions (You can be forgiven if this is a theme you’ve read here lately!) .  We know he can play both but you want to concentrate on ONE position before a match as important as a World Cup final (slip of the tongue, did I say final?).

The second thing that stands out to me is the inclusion of Pat McCabe at 12.  This is also great for the All Blacks.  We know he has been struggling with a shoulder injury and until very recently I’ve never given him any credit as a player.  But the last two times I’ve seen him play, wow, the kid can tackle.

He’s carrying an injury though so Kaino and Nonu WILL target him and with Ashley-Cooper in two minds they could easily exploit weakness in the midfield.

If Anthony Fa’ainga does come into the mix (if Beale does not play and Ashley-Cooper plays at fullback, I know, it’s all very confusing thanks to Robbie’s crazy new formula) then the midfield is even more exposed.

So we’ve got one guy who has played very little in this tournament and didn’t look too comfortable out there, with one guy who full credit to him, is a MONSTER on defense has a badly bunged up shoulder. It doesn’t look too flash against one of the best midfield combinations in world rugby does it?

Thirdly, the bench.  It seems to be an unwritten All Black squad rule to ALWAYS have one outside back on the bench to cover wing and fullback.  It’s common sense right?  Apparently not so common sense for a Wallabies bench that’s already very thin on depth in the back three.

You would think with an injury cloud over Beale, that would be enough to warrant picking an extra outside back.  You would think, that with Ioane recently back from a nasty thumb injury, that would warrant picking an extra outside back.  Apparently not.  They have someone who can back up at 10 or 12 in Barnes, center with Horne and at halfback with Burgess but no cover for the back 3.  Only O’Connor you could be 90% confident to play the entire match.  Risky much?

On the All Black side of things I would have rather seen the dependable and versatile Isaia Toeava as the utility reserve back for the All Blacks but of course they’ve opted for the magic of Sonny Bill Williams.  Let’s hope his defensive liabilities don’t get found out.  Let’s hope Kaino, Weepu, McCaw and Cruden all nullify their opposites, our midfield shines and our tight five go to TOWN on the ‘at best average’ Wallaby tight forwards.

Also, if you’re planning on saying any prayers on Saturday night, please spare one for Stephen Donald.  Let’s ALL pray that Beaver leaves ALL the kicking to Weepu, because we simply can’t afford a trademark Stephen Donald brain explosion in a match THIS important.