The Up The Guts prediction for the All Blacks squad for Tri Nations 5: Springboks vs All Blacks:
1. Woodcock
2. Mealamu
3. B. Franks
4. Williams
5. Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. Thomson
8. Messam
9. Cowan
10. Slade
11. Gear
12. SBW
13. Kahui
14. Toeava
15. Dagg
Reserves: O.Franks, Hoeata, Nonu, Jane, Hore, Vito, Weepu
Note: My personal preference is to see Toeava, the best fullback in this years Super 15, at fullback but because of his flexibility, I suspect it more likely he will play on the wing.
Tonight is going to be a Springbok annihilation, you heard it here first. Looking for a good punt for tonights match? Here are my tips:
All Blacks Alternate Point Start -28.5 – $3.10
1st All Black Try Scorers Boot Colour! – Red/Orange $6.00
Get on it @ TAB
Winning!
Losing!
There was a very interesting show down on the weekend. Maybe you can’t read too much into the fact that it was a Fiji side that although they fought hard and the score line was much narrower than most people expected (38 instead of the TAB’s predicted 69), Sivivatu did once again show that he is a big game, Test match player. Time after time he put himself in the right places, read the game well and put the All Blacks on the front foot. He screams All Black doesn’t he? You’d be mad to leave him out in a World Cup year.
In a way you have to feel bad for young Zac, he would have been chomping at the bit to get out there and it must have been extremely frustrating that most of the game was being played on the other side of the field that he was on.
In the post game analysis though, you could see that Siti was doing all the things that everyone has been praising Zac for doing throughout the Super 15 and maybe Zac got a bit of stage fright and stopped doing those things? He wasn’t looking for work, he wasn’t trying to make himself available. He wasn’t reading the game.
You have to feel sorry for the lad. Last year he got one shot against Wales and he didn’t have a bad game but he didn’t set the world on fire and it’s taken until now for him to get another shot. Has he just blown it again? Will he get another shot or have the Three Wise Men™ seen enough?
Unfortunately Zac’s chances are pretty thin. Even if they wanted to give him another go, there are 4 Test matches left before the World Cup and they’ll want to see Jane and Gear play in at least one or two of those. I suppose it could be worse. Zac could be another one Test All Black.
The TAB have opened their odds for this Fridays 1st All Black Test of the year with a formidable challenge. The opening Point Start start deficit shown here means that the All Blacks will need to win by 69 or more points in order for you to get a return on that bet. Nice one TAB!
In other International Rugby news, the Springboks have named their weakest Tri Nations side EVER to grace the shores of Sydney for the opening match this Saturday night. Don’t worry about the Samoa beat down Dingo Deans, with the Wallaby squad you just named, you’re going to annihilate this second string team of wannabes.
He’s a special chap that Luke McAlister. I thought he had the NZRFU all worked out in 2007 when he cleverly left his announcement to leave NZ shores to play for Euro club Sale Sharks until after the conclusion of the World Cup. This ensured that his decision would not influence the selectors selection of someone else in his position because they were going to hang around. The NZRFU moved mountains to fast track Luke back into NZ, back into the NZ Maori for one game then straight into the All Blacks (for which he was woefully unprepared and his performance was poor).
Luke McAlister is all Washed Up
Let’s face it, he’s been pretty rubbish since he got back until the 2nd half of this years Super Rugby competition where he really came into his own, showing us what made him such a compelling All Black selection back in ’07. Then out of the Blues (see what I did there?), even before the end of the season he announces he’s heading back overseas again for another fat pay check!
This time it’s a bit strange though. Why didn’t he wait until after the World Cup again? Has his abilities made him… well, arrogant as Obi Wan so wisely questioned? Last World Cup he was arguably the best in his position, now its very murky because you’ve got the two top draw chaps of Sonny Bill Williams and Ma’a Nonu, the prospect that he could also play at Fly Half at a pinch as Dan’s back up AND the fact that he played most of his Rugby for Sale at Centre. Does that make him versatile at a lot of positions or does it just make him not the best at any? He could have waited till October to make his announcement though and who knows maybe he’d be in a black jersey now?
The Three Wise Men: Henry, Hansen and Smith
I guess we’ll never know whether the Three Wise Men would have selected him had he not already announced that he would head off shore after the World Cup. But one thing is for sure, Luke thought he was in!! No sooner had the first All Blacks squad of the year been announced, our friend Luke went underground. He’s bailed on his ITM Cup side North Harbour and although there hasn’t been official word from the Jedi himself (I promise that’s the last Star Wars pun), all signs are pointing to him being extremely pissed off that he didn’t make the cut for the All Blacks, he’s thrown his toys in a big huff and he’s off to Toulouse early!
There was no room on the first All Black Bus of the year for Cruden, Rokocoko, Jane, McAlister and Sivivatu. The first I’ve already spoken about and a lot of people would say that Rokocoko and Jane have not dazzled us with their form in this years Super Rugby. However, McAlister and Sivivatu will be a big shock to most.
Use The Force Luke
Many pundits thought Luke McAlister was surely the man to back up Dan Carter in this years World Cup. It turns out Luke didn’t use the Force™. Extremely solid with the boot and can comfortably kick 60m if required, blockbusting midfield line breaker, great decision maker and strong defender but is there room for him? The answer is a resounding no. If you look at the rest of the squad you realise we shouldn’t just be picking McAlister for his kicking ability, there are plenty of guys who can kick goals in this team if Dan can’t and let’s face it, he’s way down the pecking order of inside centres after Nonu and SBW who are the specialists and Kahui and Toeava who can also cover that position comfortably. Sorry Luke, but it’s just a case of ‘No Room on the Bus!’ Also, pissing off back overseas when you were just starting to get your form back probably didn’t help your chances much either.
Zac vs Siti
Sitivini Sivivatu is an interesting one. I thought Gear and Siti were going to be our first choice wings but there was No Room on the Bus for Siti at all, not even on that uncomfortable seat at the front next to the driver. I thought Siti had a great season for the Chiefs considering how poor the Chiefs forwards platform was and how few opportunities he was given so I thought I better dig up some stats to see if I could figure out how the Three Wise Men justified Siti’s ommission. Let’s just forget for the moment that the Crusaders gave Zac Guildford a hell of a lot of ball and a hell of a lot of space and go forward and just focus purely on each mans individual work rates.
Sivivatu makes more line breaks than Guildford and we have always known it has been his strength to make something from nothing and find a gap where there wasn’t one. You can also see that Siti takes responsibility for catching a lot of high balls at the back (Catches). Opposition teams were probably targetting him because they knew Mils was safer but Siti proved to be very dependable in this area. It looks like Siti caught most of these too as you can see his Lost Possession stats are still lower than Zacs despite having to catch 20 more balls than him. You can also see Siti gets a lot more Go Forward in the tackle even when he is brought down giving his team valuable territory and space.
The only blight on Sivivatu’s game this year statistically is that he has been heavily penalised. 11 times and I suspect most of these were for not releasing the ball quick enough in the tackle as he’s not positioning himself well enough to distribute the ball cleanly once he’s gone down. So it’s tough call but I guess in Zacs favour he really has looked for a lot more work this year, really getting involved in every area of the game and his defense has improved massively. And to go back to the original point, it certainly didn’t harm his chances playing alongside the best NZ team in the competition. It could simply be that Siti’s fitness has not been up to scratch.
Zac vs Siti - Round 1 - Fight!
The Siti vs Zac battle will be an interesting one to follow in the coming months. As we know, All Black selection is ruthless and all this really means is that Zac will probably get the first opportunity to impress in the black jersey. If he doesn’t impress, he’ll make way for Siti and the guy that plays better on the day will likely cement his spot.
The first All Black squad of 2011 celebrates some past All Blacks who have fought brilliantly this year in Super Rugby to secure their spot. Up The Guts takes a look at who was successful in making a Total Recall™.
After 2.5 years of archilles injury exile big Ali is back in the All Blacks
The Engine Room:
Cory Flynn, Liam Messam, Adam Thomson and Ali Williams have all had outstanding Super Rugby seasons and deserve their Total Recall. Let’s hope that Flynn stays injury free and doesn’t break his arm for the 97th time. One would suspect the next man off the rank would be Hika Elliot but my personal preference would be for Jason Rutledge.
The Glory Boys:
Andy Ellis, Colin Slade, Piri Weepu, Richard Kahui and Zac Guildford are more interesting in the sense of who missed out because of them.
Andy Ellis and Zac Guildford have played their way back into All Black contention of the back of some pretty outstanding Super Rugby performances. Zac has worked very hard this year and although he’s benefited from being given quality ball and space from a superior Super Rugby franchise he has really looked for work this year much in the way that Gear did last year to bring himself into All Black contention. Ellis has not blown us away this year but he has proved to be a very solid half back who makes good decisions, makes quick ruck ball with crisp passing and I believe has a very good box kick that puts catchers under pressure and is timed so that his wings can meet the player and ball at the same time; a skill Cowan and Du Preez are very good at.
After a dozen failed shoulder reconstructions, Kahui has replaced his flimsy shoulders with state of the art bionic arms
Next off the rank is Colin “Glass Jaw” Slade in favour of Aaron Cruden (I know that’s fair, they were both unfair tackles). Most pundits would argue that Cruden has done more than enough this year to at least get selected for the All Black squad. Anything could happen over the next few months but you’d have to think that if he was seriously in the minds of the selectors he’d be in this first squad. His kicking % has been exemplary this year, an area that has been all to obvious a work on for him in the past. He takes the ball to the line, his offload and distribution has been incredible and the fact that he’s done it in a woefully failing team in the Hurricanes amplifies how good he’s become. So Colin Slade really has his work cut out for him. Cruden may still have an opportunity yet and on a postive note, the Manawatu Turbos will be absolutely STOKED to have him as a regular starter in the ITM Cup starting this week!
Weepu and Kahui were always going to be back in the frame once they overcame their horrific injuries, let’s hope they can keep fit and unbroken so we can see them perform at their best in this very important World Cup year.
COMING UP NEXT ON UPTHEGUTS.CO.NZ : Who was there “No Room on the Bus” for?
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