Up The Guts Rugby

Waikato vs Canterbury – Premiership Final

"Hey Robbie Fruean, your Mum called, she said watch out for Siti, he's gonna break your heart in the final!"

The same match up as last year but this time in Mooloo country.  I said at the start of the season Waikato were my favourite team to win the ITM Cup (though as you know I really wish it were the Steamers!) and they have a great opportunity to do so with a home final.

Stephen Donald is in red hot form and him, Messam and Sivivatu are going to flog their guts out to take that title.  It would be a fitting end to two wonderful careers for Donald and Sivivatu who have served the mighty Waikato and the Chiefs so well over the years.  Despite all his critics, Stephen Donald has been a wonderful entertainer, an amazing servant to NZ Rugby and he will be missed.

The sheer skills and ability from Donald, Sivivatu, Messam, Leonard, Tokula and Speight will be too much for the Canterbury machine to contain my in books.

Waikato by 3 points.

Manawatu vs Hawkes Bay – Championship Final

"I'm right here if you wanna stop me taking this ITM Championship trophy fullas!"

The Magpies probably belong in the premiership, they just had a rough season last year.  Manawatu on the other hand have come from nowhere into this final and have beaten beat fan favourites Otago, by a mile on the standings table.

As I’m sure you’re all aware, Southland have been relegated and will join the teams in the Championship next season after coming last in the Premiership.

This match will be very interesting in that both of these teams lost their last game before they got here.  Player to watch: Aaron Smith, the nuggety halfback for Manawatu is destined to be the Hurricanes first choice halfback in next years Super 15. He could be the difference that tips the Championship title in the Turbo’s favour.  His combination with Aaron Cruden might prove too deadly for the Magpies to counter.

Manawatu by 6 points.

The revamped ITM Cup 2011 format - Different to last year but pretty much the same

As you Rugby Heads will all be aware, there was a lot of heated debate about reducing the number of teams in our National Provincial Championship, currently “The ITM Cup“, because 14 teams wasn’t sustainable in our little country.  The original idea was to axe the bottom four teams from last years competition but it never happened.  Instead they came up with a compromise, a Premiership comprised of the top 7 teams and the Championship comprised of the bottom 7 teams.  The bottom team of the Premiership gets relegated and the top team of the Championship gets promoted at the end of the season.  I fail to see how this solution saves the NZRFU money and makes them any more economically viable.

Cross Over Matches

This years 13 round ITM Cup has been compressed into 8 weeks because it’s a World Cup year.  At some point in the season every team will have to cram 3 games into an 8 day window.  With such a condensed programme why on Earth does it include cross over games?  Surely if they needed to compress the competition the most obviously solution would be that each team plays every team in their division only?  That way the competition could have gone for 8 weeks with each team only needing to play once a week and one week for the finals in each division.

I think the cross over games are a great idea don’t get me wrong, but they would be more of a novelty if each team (in a non World Cup year) only played one cross over match per season then it seems a bit more special and would garner a lot more interest and probably higher ticket sales.

Televised Matches, TMO, Salary Caps and Marquee Players

But the bigger question is, “How is this system saving them money?”  All the matches are televised on Sky Sport 1 in HD. I would have thought part of being in the Championship would be that their games would not be televised or only selected games would be.  Last year, the TMO was removed for non play off matches to save the NZRFU a few hundred thousand dollars.  You would think at the VERY LEAST that there would be no TMO available for Championship matches.

What about salaries?  There is no indication that the salary cap is lower for Championship teams and I strongly suspect that it isn’t.  How else have the Championship teams managed to retain athletes like Rene Ranger, Tim Nai-Nai Williams, Aaron Cruden, Ben Smith, Hika Elliot, Rudi Wulf and Luke McAlister?

So the real question is, after all the press and all the hoo ha, how is the new ITM Cup format any different to how it was before and is Promotion / Relegation in this competition actually meaningless?

I intend to find the answers to these questions, when I do I shall report back to my loyal Up The Guts Rugby fans.  Watch this space!

It’s going to be EXTREMELY hard to beat this piece of sporting horseplay in 2011.  I would talk you through it but really it’s best if you just take a quick peak yourself so I’ll just set the scene for you.  It’s North Harbour vs Manawatu, time is up on the clock.  Harbour have the ball and they’re 4 points down.  They need to keep the ball alive and try and score a try.  Watch the shenanigans unfold…

So we’re at the half way mark of the ITM Cup 2011.  Hang on a second, didn’t it just start yesterday?  If you thought it had you can be forgiven.  Some teams have played 3 games in as little as 8 days and have been having to rely on natural talent with no time for boring old training.  For the table topping Steamers according to captain Colin Bourke, all you need to do to be lead this years ITM Cup is 8 sets of 8 reps of 165kg’s.  That’s a lot of weight and a winning formula!

We knew that this season would take a huge toll on the bodies and expose the lack of depth in some teams.  The last round illustrated this for all to see.  The average winning margin for the round was 22 points.  Apart from two of the matches, when a team lost, they lost good and proper.  Whether it’s a lack of training, a lack of team cohesion or just pure fatigue some teams really got put to the sword this time round.

At the start of the season I thought Waikato would be the eventual champions but they have definitely stuttered a bit in recent weeks. They got a huge win over Tasman a few days ago but most teams have done the same so you can’t read too much into that.  Taranaki and the Bay of Plenty are shaping as tournament favourites but the TAB is still steadfast favouring Canterbury.

The next round is going to be fascinating.  The Northland Taniwha take on the Bay of Plenty Steamers.  Last year all the Bay needed was a single bonus point to progress to the Semi Finals when they came up against Northland who benefited from a dodgey try scored from a 5m forward pass in the 75th minute to extinguish the Bays title hopes.  Tasman takes on Canterbury who famously defeated them last year also.  Will history repeat or will both of these teams who are in red hot form at the moment, ignore history and clinically demolish these lesser unions (Yes I just called Northland a lesser union and implied that Bay of Plenty is a NZ Rugby super power) ?

Prediction Time!

Wellington to get relegated
Otago to get promoted

You heard it here first on Up The Guts Rugby!

People that know me will know that I am a HUGE Bay of Plenty fan.  Every year I put $20 on the Bay to win the ITM Cup.  Every year I think “This is the year!”  This year is no different people.  This year will be the first time that the mighty Bay of Plenty wins our National Provincial Championship since it’s very first season way back in 1976!

Let’s hope Southland hold onto that Log’o'wood for their next 3 defenses against Counties, Harbour and the Naki.  That way The Bay can take them on in their final defense and sneak that shield away for 2011, the first time in 7 years!

"The Flash" may hold the key to Bay of Plenty's Ranfurly Shield success

Last night me and my mate Sku drove down to Rotorua and watched them take on Waikato live, usually a massive match as they’re the two main unions that make up the Chiefs so there is a bit of rivalry there.   Usually it’s a close affair but the Bay absolutely monstered them last night.  Sku had to do a post match report for Waikato for the radio.  He was lost for positives to talk about.  You wouldn’t blame him if he just trawled one of the national news sites to try and find something redeeming there because there really wasn’t a lot to say.

But the Bay looked proud.  They were strong, fast, hard and athletic and great with ball in hand and they cut the Mooloos to bits.  They’re top of the ITM Cup Standings as they usually are this time of year and can beat any team in the competition when they’re on fire.  It’s been a long 35 years, time to take the title back I think.

Me in my new Bay of Plenty swagger, cher, neat alright!

Scored me a mean centenary beanie (polar fleece lined, that’s quality) and supporters scarf, as warm as a fresh muffin in your pants it is.  Next time I think I’ll score me some of them nifty foam fingers then I’ll really look the business.

Not a bad start to the ITM Cup, lots of points, lots of tries, a few decent dust ups and the icing on the cake, my Bay of Plenty Steamers ground out a win over Counties.  My pick of the Premiership teams though has to be Waikato.  With the talent and depth they have in their squad and with only one of their key players a possibility of making the All Blacks I think these guys are in line to win the NPC again big time.  Some SERIOUS talent right here:

Stephen Donald - Off to the latte sipping Blues next year, what a shame.

Ben May
Aled de Malmanche
Marty Holah
Alex Bradley
Tawera Kerr-Barlow
Stephen Donald
Declan O’Donnell
Save Tokula
Sitiveni Sivivatu
Trent Renata
Brendon Leonard

$5.50 at the TAB go bet on it now